|
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
جزاك الله خيرا اخي ونسأل الله لك التوفيق والربح الوفير الى الأمام
|
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
اقتباس:
اقتباس:
لا ترددوا فى الاستفسار عن ايه بيانات فى مشاركاتى |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
بنك أر بى اس حول الفيدرالى اليوم The FOMC decision on Wednesday will include a rate decision along with a post-decision press release but the FOMC will not release new forecasts this week nor will Fed Chair Yellen give a post decision press conference. In the end, we don’t see tomorrow’s statement as a “game changer” for the USD. There is little doubt that market participants expect a dovish tone in the statement in light of the further moderation in economic indicators since the FOMC last met, and we agree. With the rates market pricing the first full rate hike out of December and the USD Index testing its lowest level since early March, we see the market as well prepared for a dovish tinge from the FOMC statement. The FOMC is moving to pure data dependence, and in a data dependent environment the value of FOMC signaling and communication is diminished because the FOMC appears less willing to pre-commit to policy. In the end, we think the USD will be driven by the incoming economic data, including GDP data released just hours before April’s statement. Our economists are below the consensus looking for a 0.8% q/q annualized growth rate in the first quarter. Our economists expect a broad based moderation relative to the fourth quarter, though investment in infrastructure (largely in the energy sector) and net exports (stronger USD) may be the largest first quarter drags. We expect a 15bp rate cut and an extension of asset purchases at the Riksbank policy announcement. Not easing policy further would risk the SEK strengthening and potentially undoing progress made thus far with respect to returning inflation back to target. The Board may feel emboldened by signs its policies are working and continue on the same course, in our view. According to Bloomberg, analysts are fairly evenly split between expecting an unchanged policy rate and a small cut, while RIBAs suggest roughly 7bp of easing is priced in. With oil prices still resilient, suggesting Norges Bank may continue to drag its feet on further easing, we continue to like being long NOK/SEK. The RBNZ decision is due late in the US afternoon tomorrow (Thursday morning local time) and after RBNZ Assistant Governor McDermott gave surprisingly dovish comments last week, the stage appears to be set for a more cautious RBNZ, as the Bank may waver in its estimate of the output gap given the persistent lack of price inflation pressure despite a strong economy. At the same time, the NZD has remained elevated despite a sharp decline in dairy prices since the Bank last met in March – that may leave the RBNZ scope to step up its rhetoric about a strong currency. With RBA Governor Stevens sounding more neutral on the costs and benefits of a rate cut in Australia given the already high amount of leverage and the RBNZ moving more clearly dovish, relative yields could support a further correction higher in AUD/NZD. The BCB COPOM decision is also due late in the US afternoon tomorrow, likely after the close. The local rates DI curve is now pricing in +46 bp in the May contract and +34 bp in the June contact. This is slightly lower than the +53 bp and +40 bp hikes priced into the local DI curve one month ago. We expect a +25bp hike in the Selic policy rate to 13.00% in tomorrow's meeting. This is a revision from our initial call for a 50bp hike due to the declining forecasts since the last COPOM meeting for economic activity in 2015 and more recently to the strength of BRL dipping below 2.90. Lower growth should lead to some improvement in the medium term inflation x growth balance. We were also pricing in a final 25bp hike in March to 13.25% ending the tightening cycle, though recent gains in BRL has reduced our conviction for that last move. |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
من دويتشه بنك حول الفيدرالى اليوم Below we summarize our expected changes to the April FOMC statement. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic growth has stabilized, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators have been mixed, as job gains have slowed but the unemployment rate has remained steady. A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Household spending is rising moderately; declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power. Business fixed investment has deteriorated, possibly the result of declines in energy-related capital spending. The recovery in the housing sector remains slow and export growth has remained weak. Inflation has stabilized, largely reflecting a modest recovery in energy prices. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have risen but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of energy price declines and other factors dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term. At this time, the Committee has not decided on the timing of the initial increase in the target range. |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
التحديث اليومى للصفقات من بنك كريدى سويس EURUSD: Flat, sell at 1.1050, stop/reverse above 1.1115 for 1.0660. USDJPY: Long at 118.75, stop/reverse below 118.15, for 120.30. GBPUSD: Squared a long at 1.5332. Buy on a dip to 1.5275, stop below 1.5177 for 1.5550. USDCHF: Long at .9530, stop/reverse below .9447, for .9790. AUDUSD: Long took profit at .7914/39. Buy again on dip to .7945, stop below .7858 for .8230. NZDUSD: Short at .7670, stop/reverse above .7745, for .7425. USDCAD: Short at 1.2250, stop above 1.2330, for 1.2005. EURJPY: Flat. Sell again at 130.70, stop above 131.88 for 127.50. EURGBP: Short at .7350, stop above .7440, for .7015. |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
التحديث اليومى للصفقات من يو بى اس EURUSD Sell 1.0985/05, stop above 1.1051, target 1.0860/50 EURCHF Play 1.0465 - 1.0510 range USDCHF Buy 0.9550/30, stop below 0.9490, target 0.9630/50 EURJPY Buy dips to 130.00/20, stops below 129.80, target 130.80 USDJPY Buy dips to 118.50/70, stops below 118.40, target 119.20 EURGBP Sell 0.7150, stop above 0.7180, target 0.7100 GBPUSD Sell 1.5370, stop above 1.5410, target 1.5280 XAUUSD Play 1200 - 1220 range |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
اشكرك اخى Зиюс على هذا المجهود المبذول
وفقك الله على قدر حبك لنشر الخير بين اخوتك فى المنتدى الله يوفقك انت والجميع |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
|
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
قراءة رابو بنك لنتائج اجتماع الفيدرالى و الناتج الاجمالى الأمريكى اليوم Balanced assessment Today, the FOMC had to acknowledge that economic growth slowed during the winter months. The pace of job gains moderated, the unemployment rate remained steady, and a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources was little changed. Growth in household spending declined, business fixed investment softened and exports declined. The FOMC also repeated that the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. However, the FOMC also added that the slowdown was in part reflecting transitory factors and that households’ real incomes rose strongly, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices, and consumer sentiment remains high. In other words, the FOMC does expect a reacceleration after the disappointing first quarter, because the impact of transitory factors such as the weather and port strikes will fade. What’s more, household incomes and consumer sentiment may boost personal consumption growth. However, the FOMC also acknowledges that the slowdown is only in part caused by temporary factors. A factor that will continue to play a role after the winter is the appreciation of the US dollar that we have seen in the last 12 months and that has become a headwind for US exporters: a year ago, the EUR/USD stood at 1.38, while today it is 1.11. The Fed’s words on inflation were largely repetitive with inflation continuing to run below target, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices, while market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low, but survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. However, the FOMC did add that inflation is running below target also because of decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Note that this is also a result of the dollar appreciation. All’n all, the FOMC statement gave a balanced assessment of the current economic slowdown and the Committee remains very much in a data-dependent mode. However, the balanced and cautious tone in the statement is a far cry from the optimism and (over)confidence that we have seen in previous statements. This suggests that the large majority of doves in the Committee is in no hurry to hike and instead is waiting for solid evidence that the economic recovery can actually deal with a rate hike. Don’t shoot yourself in the foot What does this mean going forward? The Fed’s downgraded economic assessment came after the release of Q1 GDP growth earlier today, which turned out even lower than expected: 0.2% quarter-on-quarter at an annualized rate is close to an economic standstill. The slowdown in personal consumption to 1.9% and residential investment to 1.3% was accompanied by an outright 3.4% contraction in business investment and a negative contribution of net exports to GDP growth of 1.25%. This suggests that we cannot attribute the entire GDP growth slowdown to the weather. The appreciation of the US dollar in recent months is undermining the international competitiveness of US exporters and reducing their incentives to invest. In addition, the decline in oil prices has reduced the incentives for investment in the energy sector more specifically. These factors will continue to play a role after the winter, so it may take some time before we see the US economy in full swing again. The impact of the dollar appreciation is not only holding back economic growth, but also core inflation. Ironically, the strength of the dollar is for a large part caused by expectations of the Fed’s monetary tightening. What’s more, an actual rate hike could lead to further appreciation, giving US exporters hardly any time to adjust to their loss in competitiveness and keeping down core inflation. A premature rate hike would slow down the return of inflation and unemployment to their targets. Therefore, we continue to expect the Fed to delay the first hike to the final quarter of the year. |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
قراءة بنك باركليز لنتائج اجتماع الفيدرالى و الناتج الاجمالى الأمريكى اليوم "As we expected, the Federal Reserve left its policy stance unchanged at the April FOMC meeting. The Fed removed the phrase “the committee judges that an increase in the target federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April FOMC meeting” from the statement and did not replace it with any particular reference to calendar time. In our view, the lack of any specific calendar time suggests June will be a “live” meeting, where rate hike deliberations will begin in more earnest. Our view remains that September is a more likely time for the first rate hike, but we expect several on the committee to argue for a rate hike in June, including Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who is a voting member in 2015. Fed guidance about rate hikes after mid-year has been a staple of recent FOMC communications, and we read the statement as consistent with this messaging" |
| الساعة الآن 01:34 AM |
Powered by vBulletin® Copyright ©2000 - 2024
جميع الحقوق محفوظة الى اف اكس ارابيا www.fx-arabia.com