[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP rose to 0.9041 last week but reversed from there and dropped sharply to as low as 0.8744. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper fall. Note that break of 0.8739 support will argue that while rise from 0.8284 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8573 first. On the upside, above 0.8821 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But break of 0.9041 is needed confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.

In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP rose to 0.9041 last week but reversed from there and dropped sharply to as low as 0.8744. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper fall. Note that break of 0.8739 support will argue that while rise from 0.8284 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8573 first. On the upside, above 0.8821 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But break of 0.9041 is needed confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.

In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.