USD/CAD's fall from 0.9710 was brief and the recovery dampened the immediate bearish view of down trend resumption. Instead, focus is back on 0.9710/20 resistance zone. Sustained break there will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 0.9525, h: 0.9444, rs: 0.9512). In such case, USD/CAD should have bottomed out in near term and stronger rise should be seen towards 0.9972 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9512 will turn focus back to 0.9444 instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.