Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD's fall from 1.4938 extended further to as low as 1.4066 last week and the break of 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149) argues that whole rise from 1.2873 has completed at 1.4938 already. Intraday bias remains on the downside initially this week and deeper fall should now be seen to 1.3427/3860 support zone next. On the upside, above 1.4338 resistance is needed to suggest near term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3430) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and. Above 1.4938 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.
In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.