تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's break of 0.9615 indicates that recent decline has resumed and intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. Break will target 100% projection at 0.9353. On the upside, above 0.9692 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and will bring stronger recovery. But upside should be limited below 0.9972 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's break of 0.9615 indicates that recent decline has resumed and intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. Break will target 100% projection at 0.9353. On the upside, above 0.9692 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and will bring stronger recovery. But upside should be limited below 0.9972 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rises further to as high as 85.51 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rises further to as high as 85.51 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

More consolidation could still be seen in EUR/GBP below 0.8852 near term top. But after all, outlook will remain bullish with 0.8653 support intact. Above 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first. However, break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

More consolidation could still be seen in EUR/GBP below 0.8852 near term top. But after all, outlook will remain bullish with 0.8653 support intact. Above 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first. However, break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF edge further higher to 1.3234 and touches 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234. Intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.3038 minor support holds. Rise from 1.2432 is treated as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2401 and could extend to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3434). On the downside, below 1.3038 minor support will suggest that a short term top is possibly formed and flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.2736 support will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF edge further higher to 1.3234 and touches 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234. Intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.3038 minor support holds. Rise from 1.2432 is treated as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2401 and could extend to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3434). On the downside, below 1.3038 minor support will suggest that a short term top is possibly formed and flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.2736 support will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's rally extends further to as high as 121.95 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for mentioned 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50. Break will target 161.8% projection at 128.03 next. On the downside, below 120.86 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But strong support should be seen around 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 117.80) to contain downside and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA are taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case. Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's rally extends further to as high as 121.95 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for mentioned 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50. Break will target 161.8% projection at 128.03 next. On the downside, below 120.86 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But strong support should be seen around 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 117.80) to contain downside and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA are taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case. Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rises further to as high as 139.56 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. Break will target 161.8% projection at 147.25. On the downside, below 137.95 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained well above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rises further to as high as 139.56 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. Break will target 161.8% projection at 147.25. On the downside, below 137.95 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained well above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's rally extends further to as high as 1.4335 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4251 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.4020 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. FUrther rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into and impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high. On the downside, break of 1.3427 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's rally extends further to as high as 1.4335 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4251 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.4020 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. FUrther rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into and impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high. On the downside, break of 1.3427 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD rose to as high as 1.6362 earlier today before retreating mildly. Intraday bias remains mildly on the upside as long as 1.6214 minor support holds, for 1.6400 resistance. Note that acceleration of the current rebound argues that it might indeed be resuming whole rise from 1.5343. Break of 1.6400 will confirm the bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588 next. On the downside, below 1.6214 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first and bring consolidations.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD rose to as high as 1.6362 earlier today before retreating mildly. Intraday bias remains mildly on the upside as long as 1.6214 minor support holds, for 1.6400 resistance. Note that acceleration of the current rebound argues that it might indeed be resuming whole rise from 1.5343. Break of 1.6400 will confirm the bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588 next. On the downside, below 1.6214 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first and bring consolidations.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF dips sharply today but is still holding above 0.9126 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral and another recovery cannot be ruled out yet. But even in that case, upside should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9562) and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.9126 minor support will flip bias to the downside for 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm fall resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF dips sharply today but is still holding above 0.9126 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral and another recovery cannot be ruled out yet. But even in that case, upside should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9562) and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.9126 minor support will flip bias to the downside for 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm fall resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside with 83.85 minor support intact. Current rise is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside with 83.85 minor support intact. Current rise is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.