تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive on Friday. As you can see on my hourly below the minor trend line resistance (white) still provide a good resistance after the fall from 123.31. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Another move back below 119.30 could trigger further downside pressure testing 118.61 – 118.00 support area. Immediate resistance at 120.00. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 120.50 but only a clear break above 120.50 could end the current bearish phase testing 123.31.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive on Friday. As you can see on my hourly below the minor trend line resistance (white) still provide a good resistance after the fall from 123.31. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Another move back below 119.30 could trigger further downside pressure testing 118.61 – 118.00 support area. Immediate resistance at 120.00. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 120.50 but only a clear break above 120.50 could end the current bearish phase testing 123.31.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive on Friday. On hourly chart below we can see price is moving in a rectangle area of 135.93 – 134.69 indicates sideways condition and need a clear break from either side to see clearer intraday direction. A clear break above 135.93 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 137.00 while a clear break below 134.69 could continue the bearish phase since the failure to make a clear break above 139.67 testing 133.50/00 support area.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive on Friday. On hourly chart below we can see price is moving in a rectangle area of 135.93 – 134.69 indicates sideways condition and need a clear break from either side to see clearer intraday direction. A clear break above 135.93 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 137.00 while a clear break below 134.69 could continue the bearish phase since the failure to make a clear break above 139.67 testing 133.50/00 support area.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall price is still in a strong bullish outlook. We had some downside pullback earlier today in Asian session testing 1.0684 support area as you can see on my daily chart below. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.0581 but I think the overall bias remains strongly to the upside and I see no sign of potential significant technical bearish view so far and unless price move back below 1.0581 the technical bias remains strongly to the upside testing 1.0850 – 1.0900.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall price is still in a strong bullish outlook. We had some downside pullback earlier today in Asian session testing 1.0684 support area as you can see on my daily chart below. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.0581 but I think the overall bias remains strongly to the upside and I see no sign of potential significant technical bearish view so far and unless price move back below 1.0581 the technical bias remains strongly to the upside testing 1.0850 – 1.0900.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD's up trend extended further to as high as 1.4647 before making a temporary top there and turned sideway. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment for some consolidations. But retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4647 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD's up trend extended further to as high as 1.4647 before making a temporary top there and turned sideway. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment for some consolidations. But retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4647 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rally extended last week and met mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588 before making a temporary top at 1.6598. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment for some consolidations But retreat should be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6387) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6598 will target 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rally extended last week and met mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588 before making a temporary top at 1.6598. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment for some consolidations But retreat should be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6387) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6598 will target 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF dropped to new record low of 0.8780 before making a temporary low there and recovered. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment for some consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8780 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946 is already met. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will pave the way towards 100% projection at 0.6266.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF dropped to new record low of 0.8780 before making a temporary low there and recovered. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment for some consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8780 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946 is already met. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will pave the way towards 100% projection at 0.6266.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD rose to new record high at 1.0773 last week before losing some upside momentum and retreated. A temporary top should be in place and intraday bias is neutral for some consolidations. Deeper retreat might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0603) but downside should be contained above 1.0388 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.0773 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, break of 0.8704 support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD rose to new record high at 1.0773 last week before losing some upside momentum and retreated. A temporary top should be in place and intraday bias is neutral for some consolidations. Deeper retreat might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0603) but downside should be contained above 1.0388 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.0773 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, break of 0.8704 support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD dived to as low as 0.9454 but stabilized from there and recovered. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment and some consolidations could be seen first. Nevertheless, in case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9670) and bring fall resumption. Below 0.9453 will extend recent down trend towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD dived to as low as 0.9454 but stabilized from there and recovered. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment and some consolidations could be seen first. Nevertheless, in case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9670) and bring fall resumption. Below 0.9453 will extend recent down trend towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 extended further to as low as 81.61 last week and the break of 81.97 resistance turned support dampens the bullish view that the cross has bottomed out earlier at 76.40. Deeper decline will now remain in favor as long as 83.09 minor resistance holds and further fall could now be seen towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 extended further to as low as 81.61 last week and the break of 81.97 resistance turned support dampens the bullish view that the cross has bottomed out earlier at 76.40. Deeper decline will now remain in favor as long as 83.09 minor resistance holds and further fall could now be seen towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP attempted to recover after hitting 0.8739 but upside was limited below 0.8922 and then cross weakened again. With 0.8713 support intact, we're treating price actions from 0.8922 as consolidation in the larger rally only. Intraday bias remains neutral for more sideway trading first. Break of 0.8922 will indicate rise resumption and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, note that break of 0.8713 support will indicate that EUR/GBP has possibly formed a head and shoulder top pattern and the near term trend has resumed. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to 0.8671 resistance turned support and below.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP attempted to recover after hitting 0.8739 but upside was limited below 0.8922 and then cross weakened again. With 0.8713 support intact, we're treating price actions from 0.8922 as consolidation in the larger rally only. Intraday bias remains neutral for more sideway trading first. Break of 0.8922 will indicate rise resumption and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, note that break of 0.8713 support will indicate that EUR/GBP has possibly formed a head and shoulder top pattern and the near term trend has resumed. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to 0.8671 resistance turned support and below.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.